JR’s Wager World: Week 3 Picks

Posted on 24 September 2010 by James

The Jason Campbell era lasted just 6 quarters in Oakland.

Week 2 was a telling one for many teams. The Vikings, Cowboys and 49ers — three pre-season division winner picks — are all sitting at 0-2 with very, very crucial match-ups coming. Another major storyline was quite a few coaches kicking up the quarterback carousel’s speed to hyper-drive, in some cases way, way too early and in others, maybe just surprising timing. Oakland switched to Bruce Gradkowski after just 6 quarters of the Jason Campbell era. Now, before Gradko injured his knee in Week 13 last season against the Redskins, he was playing some pretty solid football and not just in comparison to his predecessor. We’ll see how long he lasts before Al Davis’ corpse is screaming from the owner’s box to “put the black guy back in.” In Tennessee, Vince Young was yaanked after a couple of silly turnovers and Kerry Collins promptly led them to an “almost-comeback” that fell one or two plays short. Trouble in Music City? Hmm…  Carolina switched from ineffective Matt Moore to rookie Jimmy Clausen. This won’t end well, and John Fox will be a defensive coordinator in a different city next year.

But the biggest story is of course Philadelphia’s Andy Reid benching McNabb’s heir apparent, Kevin Kolb, for the re-energized running force that is Michael Vick. I don’t know if this will cost Kolb his future, but it’s a very interesting move from Reid. I believe that Reid made the right move in this case. Now, if the Cowboys were 2-0, the Redskins were 2-0 and the Giants somehow were also 2-0, I can see saying to yourself, your staff, your team, and your fans that “This is clearly not going to be our year, so let’s start re-building for 2011.” by enduring growing pains with Kolb and the other youngsters. But that’s not the case at all. The Eagles could win this division with a 9-7 record, conceivably. Vick is the hot hand, that’s who gives your team the best chance at winning right now. Why not see how far it’ll go? Now, if they skid and go 1-4 in their next five games, sure, you install Kolb and give him the last 9 games of the year to work out the kinks. But if you have any glimmer of hope to win or at least challenge for a division, don’t you owe it to the aforementioned groups to do everything in your power to put the team in the position to do so? It might not be the best move for Kolb, but it is, crystal clearly, the best move for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Week 3 Picks (Home Team in CAPS; My pick in bold)

Tennessee vs. NY GIANTS (-3)

Well, the game on Sunday night against the Colts did not go at all as I had hoped it would. There was no game plan, and because of that, very little execution. Chris Collinsworth announced that the Giants actually won the opening coin toss not seen on TV and elected to kick instead of receive. Really? On the road? Against PEYTON MANNING? Come on, Coughlin.  You’re smarter than that, aren’t you? Also, after the meltdown by Brandon Jacobs in Indy, I can’t see him being a dependable option in the running game just yet. Coughlin is like a jilted wife in matters of playing time. He’ll really only make you happy if you make him happy. And Jacobs ain’t making him happy. This week, the Titans come to town after a tough loss against Pittsburgh. Now, credit is due to the Pittsburgh defensive unit. They looked downright scary in that game. In holding Chris Johnson to his first sub-100 yard game in two seasons, they successfully stifled the entire offense of the Titans. (HINT: Giants need to key on the run/Johnson first, and see how the rest goes. Not let Tennessee dictate the pace and plan of the game like the Colts did.) Vince Young gets his starter’s gig back this week, but will he be on the hook again if the team falters?  That can’t be good for the young man’s fragile psyche. I like the Giants to rebound in this one, and expect Ahmad Bradshaw to be fed a very healthy diet of rock this week. Eli Manning could also have a good game, but needs to limit his turnovers.  For the Titans, I love Johnson, of course, and think we could have surprising, sneaky good weeks from Vince Young and Bo Scaife. Giants by 10.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Chris Johnson, Bo Scaife, Vince Young, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Eli Manning, Steve Smith
  • Fantasy Losers: Nate Washington, Kevin Boss, Mario Manningham

Knee looks fine, doesn't it?

Buffalo vs. NEW ENGLAND (-14.5)

Coach Belichick won’t allow this team to lose back-to-back games to division rivals. Expect them to come out firing, going for the throat with the same intensity they showed in Week 1’s thrashing of Cincy at home. Buffalo has an underrated secondary which could pose potential problems for Tom Brady, but the cream always rises to the top so if you have him, start him. Same goes for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. We might get some running plays out of the Pats too, but don’t expect Fred Taylor to shine. My money is on the more versatile, 25-years younger RB, Benjarvus Green-Ellis. As for Buffalo… come on. They don’t even know who to start on a week-to-week basis. How could we? Every single person is a gamble.
 

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Aaron Hernandez, Fred Taylor
  • Fantasy Losers: All Bills, Rob Gronkowski, Sammy Morris

Cleveland vs. BALTIMORE (-11)

The Ravens have been one of the bigger disappointments for their fans thus far, and that’s saying a lot given their opponents. With two tough games against ‘09 playoff teams (Jets, Cincy), the squad finally gets a taste of a favorable match-up with the division rivals Cleveland coming to town. This one could be a track meet for the Ravens. Cleveland hasn’t looked close to their late-season form from ‘09, and with injuries to Jerome Harrison and Jake Delhomme, it might be tough to get something going against a ferocious Ravens’ D. It’s too early in the season for a “let down” game like last year’s Steelers vs. Cleveland game that doomed the Steelers’ playoff hopes and catapulted the Browns toward their late-season surge. I think we’re looking at a breakout game for Joe Flacco here.  He’s not anywhere close to the carousel, yet, but another 3 INT game could get his seat very, very warm.  Remember, Marc Bulger is waiting in the wings and with a healthy line and weapons, he’s a proven winner in the NFL. Laying 11 points is always dicey, but, with the Ravens at home, I think it’s a good bet.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin, Ray Rice, Todd Heap, Ravens DEF, Peyton Hillis
  • Fantasy Losers: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Derrick Mason, Mohammad Massaquoi, Cleveland DEF

Will the Steelers move to 3-0 behind a ferocious Defense and... (gulp) Charlie Batch?!

Pittsburgh (-2.5)

vs. TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay got out to a flying 2-0 start, thanks in part to a semi-soft schedule and some very solid play from a young, overachieving team. Don’t hold your breath for a 3-0 start.  The Steelers are similarly overachieving without their star QB, Ben Roethlisberger who is eligible to return from suspension Week 6 against Cleveland. Everyone expected the Steelers to be a .500 football team without their captain. Wrong. They’ve been lights out defensively, and pretty sharp on offense too. Now, this week is a test because they’ll be trotting Charlie Batch out there as a starter, his first start since Crystal Pepsi was around. But really, this will be about the defense. They’ve allowed just one TD this year, and just 20 total points. They should wreak havoc on the young Bucs. Watch out, AFC. We’re looking at a 3-0 Steelers team playing with a 4th string QB…while their offensive leader chills out with High School kids! Wait, isn’t that what got him in trouble in the first place?

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Pittsburgh DEF, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Rashard Mendenhall, Kellen Winslow, Mike Williams
  • Fantasy Losers: Josh Freeman, Cadillac Williams

Cincinnati (-3) vs. CAROLINA

I think Carolina is a wasteland, top to bottom, and feel terrible that quality pros like Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and young powerhouse Jonathan Stewart are stuck there. Cincy is going to roll in there like a hurricane (too soon?) and rip this team up. I just don’t see Jimmy Clausen’s debut game going even 1/3 as well as Sam Bradford’s did statistically. Use your judgment on Carson Palmer, but the rest of the guys should do alright for the Bengals.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, Jermaine Gresham, Cincy DEF, Cedric Benson (if healthy), DeAngelo Williams
  • Fantasy Losers: Jordan Shipley, Carolina DEF, Steve Smith, Jonathan Stewart

Atlanta vs. NEW ORLEANS (-3)

This game has the makings of an upset in the NFC South. The Super Bowl champs have played well thus far running out to a 2-0 start after two tough games against the Vikes and the Niners. Now, they return home to face a solid Falcons squad who is better than their 1-2 record indicates.  Last week’s 41-7 drubbing of the Cardinals was a better indicator than their 15-9 loss to the Steelers. Plus, last week’s groin injury heard (felt?) ’round the world was a real decimating injury for yours truly. Having Turner on two teams, his 9 rushes for 75 yards had me giddy. He was en route to a 200 yard game with two TDs, I was sure of it. And then he pulls his penis, and then Jason Snelling came in and became the hot handcuff of the week by running roughshod over the hapless Cardinals.Wow. But I digress… The Falcons run defense leaves something to be desired, but the New Orleans Saints aren’t known for their ground and pound. I like the Falcons here, but I think the Saints pull out a tough victory at home. Look for solid starts from all the regulars, and my sleeper pick today? Why, that’s Tony Gonzalez. Sure, how can a Hall of Famer be a sleeper? Well, the guy only has 54 receiving yards on 4 catches. Look for a breakout today to the tune of 5 catches for 45 yards and a score.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Michael Turner, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey
  • Fantasy Losers: Atlanta DEF, Matt Ryan, Robert Meachem, Ladell Betts (like I needed to say it)

Keep an eye out for this mighty mite. Dude has speed, hands and fits perfectly into Todd Haley/Charlie Weis-type ball.

San Francisco vs. KANSAS CITY (+3)

If you saw the opening week MNF game, you know exactly why I’m picking them.  Let’s hope the Chiefs fans are out in full force for their undefeated team’s second home game.  San Fran is struggling to start the year after two tough games against the Seahawks (shocker) and Saints (down to the wire, not shocking). It’s hard to consider this an upset given that one team is undefeated and the other is winless, but given the expectations coming into the season, I’d say this qualifies. Matt Cassel hasn’t figured it out yet, and I dunno if he will this season, but if Todd Haley can get the rushing attack on track against a tough 49ers D, this one could come down to the wire.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, Dwayne Bowe
  • Fantasy Losers: Michael Crabtree, Matt Cassel, Thomas Jones

Detroit (+11.5) vs. MINNESOTA

Maybe I’m crazy, but I think something has to give this week for the Lions, and I like them winning a tough one on the road here. Not just with the points, but actually winning. I’d feel a lot more comfortable if Matt Stafford were healthy, but with Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, I like the odds this week. I think the Vikes are having major, major problems with personnel and Brett Favre has reportedly been having second thoughts about his comeback thanks to the lack of chemistry and talent on the roster. Though it’s predominantly a WR issue, there’s still the concern that the team doesn’t have the same fearsome reputation on the defensive side of the ball too. I’m going for the big upset today, Detroit winning outright.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Jahvid Best, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe
  • Fantasy Losers: Tony Scheffler, Shaun Hill, Brett Favre, Bernard Berrian

Dallas vs. HOUSTON (-2.5)

Houston has been on a nice roll since the end of last season, and they’re doing it now without arguably their best defensive player in ROY Brian Cushing. They’ll be hosting a sad, underachieving Dallas squad desperately seeking their first win. The pressure that team is under is palpable. They’re built to win, and win often. I can see why people would pick them — they’re one of the most talented teams top to bottom in the NFL. But this week, I have to take the home team. I think Matt Schaub has the chops to do what Jay Cutler did to the Dallas secondary, carving them up by alternating between plays to deep threat Jacoby Jones, matchup nightmare Kevin Walter and all-galaxy talent Andre Johnson. That’s not even mentioning TE on the mend, Owen Daniels, who is still working his way back. Oh, and they have a pretty decent running game, ,too. Dallas will challenge them, but the fact that they’re pressing will affect how they play. I like the Texans 27-23.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Felix Jones (just a hunch), Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter
  • Fantasy Losers: Marion Barber, Roy Williams, Dallas DEF, Arian Foster, Jacoby Jones, Owen Daniels

Washington  vs. ST. LOUIS (+4)

I don’t know what it is, but much in the same way I’m calling for a Detroit win, I think the Rams are due. Sam Bradford looks like the real deal after three straight years of draft-day whiffs in the first round. Everyone called for Ndumakong Suh as the clear cut slam dunk pick, a can’t-miss prospect that this franchise needed. But after getting burned on Chris Long, and looking like it might go that way on Jason Smith, this team with second-year man Steve Spagnuolo calling the shots needed a leader. They found their man. Now, this is strictly a hunch because as we all saw last week the Redskins can score points. If it goes to a shootout, the Redskins will lap the Rams. The key to this game for the Rams will be containing Donovan McNabb and the run, and forcing him to rely on throwing on the move, which is when he makes mistakes. Let’s see if Steven Jackson can finally hit paydirt, a disappointing stat to all his fantasy owners over the last two years has been his lack of TDs. Maybe this week is THE WEEK? For the ‘Skins, you have to like Santana Moss because of his outside speed against the Rams’ secondary. I don’t trust their running game as I think the main back, Mr. Clinton Portis, has looked slow, sad and lonely. If I were a betting man, I’d be taking the Rams this weekend.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Santana Moss, Donovan McNabb, Chris Cooley, Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson
  • Fantasy Losers: Clinton Portis, Malcom Kelly, Rams DEF, Mark Clayton

Philadelphia (-3) vs. JACKSONVILLE

Come on, this is too easy. Michael Vick should tear it up on the JV squad that is Jacksonville. In fact, I love every Eagle this week. If you have space to start their center, do it. Jacksonville looks tepid. A lukewarm puddle of urine. Terrible. MJD, you wanna get in on this fantasy football thing or what?

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Every Eagle, Eagles DEF, Andy Reid, Jeffrey Lurie, Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Fantasy Losers: Every other Jaguar

Indianapolis  (-5.5) vs. DENVER

After their Week 1 loss, Indianapolis has looked every bit the Super Bowl contender and AFC Championship team that we all thought they were. Peyton Manning is off to another fast start and is doing a great job keeping his receivers involved. He’s the master of taking what defenses give him. I have 100% faith in the Colts and even going in to Denver to play a feisty Broncos team, I think they should do just fine in handling their business. Start the usuals with a particular eye on Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark.  With Champ Bailey and Andre’ Goodman both nursing injuries, the Broncos’ secondary could get absolutely torched. For the Broncos, what can I say. Injuries have really taken a toll on this team. We know what happened to Elvis Dumervil in pre-season, Ryan Clady is still recovering from his off-season injury, the cornerbacks are hurt, Knowshon Moreno may miss this game with a hammie… it’s really unbelievable. Demaryius Thomas, who missed Game 1, came back for a Week 2 win in a big way. I like the rapport he has with the picture of consistency, Kyle Orton. This is a throw first team. Don’t even second guess it. They may try to run behind Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter this week, but I still think Orton can muster 220 yards and a score if you need a spot start.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Reggie Wayne, Kyle Orton, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney
  • Fantasy Losers: Donald Brown, Indianpolis DEF, Brandon Lloyd, Laurence Maroney

San Diego (-4.5) vs. SEATTLE

I’ve been quite surprised by both teams in this battle. San Diego clearly misses its number 1 receiver, Vincent Jackson, and its number one offensive lineman, Marcus McNeil. The rapport between Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates seems unaffected, and Malcom Floyd has shown flashes of great ability, but one can only imagine what this team would be looking like had they elected to pay Jackson and McNeil and bring back LT. Ryan Mathews just hasn’t looked as good as advertised.  I’d be wary of his playing time moving forward with the emergence of human bowling ball Mike Tolbert performing as well as he has. For the Seahawks, who knew? They’re sitting at 1-1, right in the thick of things in a very, very poor NFC West division. I simply don’t like their chances against the perennial AFC West champs and think that, as usual, talent will win out in this one. It’ll be interesting to see if the RB timeshare they have going with Forsett, Washington and Jones gets figured out this weekend. Forsett is clearly the best option as he can run and catch out of the backfield. Leon Washington is a good change of pace back and tremendous on special teams. Julius Jones is essentially a dead man walking. Remember when the Cowboys passed on Steven Jackson to grab Julius in the second round? Nice one, Jerry. Chargers go in to the home of the 12th man and win going away.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, Mike Tolbert, Malcom Floyd, John Carlson, Justin Forsett
  • Fantasy Losers: Legadu Naane, Ryan Mathews (injury), Matt Hasselbeck, Mike Williams, Leon Washington

Oakland (-4.5) vs. ARIZONA

This has the makings of a good ol’ fashioned West coast stink-out. In this battle of the Titans, Bruce Gradkowski takes his Oakland Raiders deep into the desert to fight the potent Derek Anderson and his Arizona Cardinals. Yeesh. I expect this to be a run fest, so if you have McFadden, he’s a must-start. As far as receivers go, I’d take a gamble on Louis Murphy if I had to, but feel comfortable starting Zach Miller. The Arizona Cardinals have a sub-par linebacker corps. who I don’t think will be able to play the run AND stop a tight end with Miller’s receiving ability. Will this be Larry Fitzgerald’s breakout game? Unlikely as he’ll draw Nnamdi Asomugha in coverage. With Early Doucet already expected to miss the game, and Beanie Wells battered, I just can’t see the Anderson-helmed Cardinals taking this one, even at home. And that says a lot since, you know, they’re playing the Raiders.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Darren McFadden, Zach Miller, Tim Hightower
  • Fantasy Losers: Darius Hayward-Bey, Michael Bush, Beanie Wells, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston

Let's see what he can do without having to book a cruise to Revis Island.

NY Jets vs. MIAMI (-2.5)

For the second weekend in a row, the Jets will battle an AFC East opponent that has “owned” them in recent years. Miami is something like 4-1 in the last five meetings between the two teams, sweeping the Jets in their 2009 series. Now, with upgrades on defense (Karlos Dansby, namely) and on offense (Brandon Marshall, namely) this Dolphins team currently sits at 2-0.  We know what their running back cadre can do as Ronnie Brown and Sticky Ricky Punch, despite injury and age concerns, just keep on ticking. Plus, without Darrelle Revis to safeguard Marshall, I expect a HUGE day from Marshall, and in turn, a decent day from Henne.  If you have a QB like Flacco or Manning, feel free to roll the dice on this matchup play, especially if you have Marshall.  That pair should pay dividends.  For the Jets, what will we see? The Week 1 disappointment, the anemic offense who couldn’t get first downs let alone touchdowns? Or the Week 2, taking the Pats to the woodshed, seamlessly running like a well-oiled machine. Miami’s DEF is underrated, to be sure. And we’re not even certain if we’ll see Shonn Greene plodding and fumbling his way through another game. I like LT 2 here because of the matchup problems he creates. Also, don’t be shocked if Braylon gets targeted quite a few times — remember, in his first game with the team last season, he caught a TD against Miami.  they may look to exploit his size and speed on the outside. Overall, I think the trend continues. Miami by 6.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: LaDainian Tomlinson, Braylon Edwards, Dustin Keller, Brandon Marshall, Chad Henne, Ronnie Brown
  • Fantasy Losers: Jerricho Cotchery, Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Ricky Williams, Davone Bess, Anthony Fasano

Green Bay (-3) vs. CHICAGO

A classic Monday Night matchup in the Black & Blue division! With Chicago sitting at 2-0, narrowly avoiding defeat at the hands of Detroit in week 1 balanced out by a thrashing of Dallas in D-town, this has major playoff implications written all over it. Pitting Jay Cutler against Aaron Rodgers is clearly the fulcrum of the game. Whoever wins that battle, has less giveaways to two very solid defenses you KNOW will be getting up for this one, and makes good decisions on third down will win this one. I actually don’t see it being a turnover-filled game. I think, despite Mike Martz being involved, there will be relatively conservative game planning featuring a lot of runs, dump-offs, swing passes, tight end useage, etc. This will be a clock management game about controlling possession time.  Green Bay has very high expectations, even without their lead running back Ryan Grant who is out for the season.  Remember, I was calling it two weeks ago that Brandon Jackson is the back-up to Ryan Grant for a reason.  I knew he wasn’t going to come in and light the world on fire.  It doesn’t happen that way. LeSean McCoy had a decent stretch last season when Westbrook was concussed, sure.  But that’s the exception. Usually, guys who have been in the league for a few years and are STILL backups are there for a reason. Very rarely do they just come out of the woodwork to lead a team.  Thanks, John Kuhn, for making me look smart. The main man I love in this, besides Rodgers, is Jermichael Finley. Tell me who on the Bears can cover him. He’ll run circles around Lance Briggs, and he’ll run over their safties. I expect a big game from Finley. On the Bears side of the ball, the only guy I really trust is Forte and that’s because of opportunity. On a sidenote, I can’t stand Jay Cutler. He’s a spoiled rotten little baby just a shade better than Philip Rivers in the Richie Rich department. I really hope he throws 4 INTs this week and not just because I have the GB DEF in two leagues. It’s the little pleasures that make life enjoyable. And going to bed on Monday night knowing the Pack beat the Bears 31-17 and Jay Cutler was 21-40 for 225, 1 TD and 4 INTs would be divine.

  • Fantasy Bruisers: Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, GB DEF, Matt Forte, Jay Cutler
  • Fantasy Losers: Brandon Jackson, James Jones, Earl Bennett, Devin Aromashadu, Devin Hester, Greg Olsen

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